Disclaimer: This is being written on March 23, 2012. The Mariners still have some cuts to make before their first game in the United States in April. I am going on the Mariners active roster on www.mariners.com.

The Seattle Mariners are in Japan getting ready for their Wednesday night (or for the USA early Wednesday morning) opener against the Oakland Athletics. With that, the majority of the exhibition season is over. Here are the biggest surprises and biggest disappointments coming out of spring training and some things to look at going into the beginning of the season.

Biggest Surprises:  Let’s start out with the positives. The big one is outfielder Michael Saunders. Here’s a guy who finished with a .149 batting average last season. Yes he dealt with the injury bug and a death in the family. However Saunders has yet to show he can bat well in the big leagues. His defense is good and with outfielder Franklin Gutierrez out for the first part of the season (more on that later,) Saunders may be in for some playing time as the Mariners wait for their gold glover Gutierrez to return. What will keep him in the starting lineup is his bat. If his spring training statistics show any indication that his bat can turn around, Saunders may have won himself a starting job going into the season. In 13 games, Saunders has a .324 batting average, at one point was hitting .417, with 12 hits out of 37 at bats and one home run. That’s not too shabby for a guy who’s trying to make the team. But what’s really making me wonder if Saunders can finally be the player the M’s want him to me is not his stats. It’s his approach and swing at the plate. It has been reported several times on ESPN Seattle that Saunders is not being as patient as he used to be. He’s much more relaxed at the plate and it seems that this new approach is working at least in spring training. Will this carry over into the regular season? Only time will tell. But with his numbers the way they are, it could be argued that Saunders numbers are the biggest surprise during the Mariners’ spring training at the offensive level. Heck, it can be argued that Saunders is batting better than new catcher Jesus Montero, who has a spring batting average of .306 in 12 games.

The second surprise of the spring for me is without a doubt outfielder Carlos Peguero. Peguero in general scares me. Why? It’s because I don’t like guys who strike out a ton and Peguero did have his far share of strikeouts last year. Then again, that’s what you get when you have a free swinger in your lineup like Peguero. That being said, I was half expecting either one of the new prospects or players like second baseman Dustin Ackley or first baseman Justin Smoak to lead the team in home runs during the spring. Instead it’s Carlos Peguero. The guy has four. He also is tied on the team for second in Runs Batted In with 10 and is tied for fourth in hits with eleven. His batting average is a little low at .256 and he leads the team in strikeouts with 14. However, if he continues to show this kind of power, there is a good chance he will stay on this team and be on the active roster when the team comes back from Japan. The strikeouts still scare me. But if Peguero still hits home runs and hits them in the clutch, I’m sure the M’s will take it considering they need all the offensive help they can get considering they’ve had batting problems for the last two seasons. My message for Peguero is this: “hit all the home runs you can. But please try to avoid the strikeouts.” If Peguero stays on this team after the Japan trip, his impatience at the plate and strikeout total could be the reason why he gets sent down to Triple-A Tacoma again. But at least he’s had a nice spring.

This next surprise is actually because of the way the Mariners marketed this player in the offseason. I’m surprised outfielder Trayvon Robinson was sent down to the minors. This has nothing to do with his home run to strikeout ratio. It has nothing to do with his spring batting average of .529. I’m surprised because in the offseason, the Mariners put him out there. He did a couple of autograph signings at selected Mariners Team Stores and made an appearance at Seattle Mariners’ Fan Fest. He also was featured many times on ESPN Seattle and I wouldn’t doubt (though I don’t have a source) he was on 950 AM KJR. With Robinson, it’s obvious the M’s want him down in the minors so he can work on some things. I just think it’s a little bizarre the M’s put him out there so much in the offseason and now he’s being sent down. I thought he was going to be a fourth or maybe fifth outfielder. Guess I was wrong.

Biggest Disappointments: Franklin Gutierrez, you lead this parade. Oh my goodness. You came into this year’s spring training in the best shape of your life. You were ready to play center field, a position that is rightfully yours. You were ready to have a bounce back year and hopefully produce better statistics at the plate. And low and behold, you are back on the sideline with an injury. Just before spring training games, Gutierrez suffered a partial tear of his right pectoral muscle. He has missed all exhibition games and is not with the M’s in Japan. I feel badly for Gutierrez. He will likely have to play another stint in Triple-A Tacoma again. That might be good for Rainiers’ fans, but for Gutierrez, it’s a familiar situation. This will be the second year in a row he will have to have his spring training in April and in Tacoma. Hopefully he won’t have to spend too many games down their. It’s really unfortunate.

Behind Gutierrez, there is pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma was once known as one of the best pitchers in Japan. He helped Team Japan win a World Baseball Classic. The Mariners are not paying him a lot of money. That’s the bright side. The down side is he has been really shaky in spring training. In four games, opponents are hitting .358 off him. He has an earned run average of 3.75. In 12 innings pitched, he has given up 19 hits. Iwakuma has not made the starting rotation and he will be in the bullpen to start the year. The last time a Seattle Mariners pitcher got hit this hard in spring training it was in 2010. Ryan Rolland-Smith made the team despite one poor outing after another and the M’s saw him falter as the season progressed. Iwakuma will be in the bullpen so at least he won’t be out on the mound every fifth day, but his stats and him being hit hard leads to the concern of is this a preview of what is to come?

Things to look at going into the beginning of the season: How will the Mariners starting rotation do? The rotation is as follows:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Hector Noesi
4. Blake Beavan
5. Kevin Millwood

I think it is obvious what fans can expect from Hernandez particularly since Fox Sports writer Ken Rosenthal predicts Hernandez will win this years American League Cy Young award. Vargas can be streaking, but again, fans have an idea of what to expect from him after watching him pitch throughout the last few years. Everyone else has questions. Will Hector Noesi replace Michael Pineda and become the next young hurler that Pineda was? Will Beavan make improvements from last season? Does the old veteran Millwood have anything left in his arm after a long career? Starting pitching has been the Mariners strong point the last few years. This is now questionable with all the new faces.

Finally, will the offense improve? I would discuss this in more detail, but if you want analysis on how bad the Mariners offense has been, I’m sure you can Google it. I might blog about it in a later post, but I’ll say this now: I’m still waiting for a player who can hit 30 home runs and a couple of others who can bat over .300. Yes, that includes Ichiro Suzuki.